Calm nights with frost this weekend. A scattering of showers on a fair Saturday before frontal rain reaches southern Britain with an east wind for Sunday.
The traffic news included reports of flooding this morning for the Friday morning commute. The Environment Agency had 72 flood warnings at 8:30am and nearly 300 flood alerts for England
“River levels remain high and will be responsive to further rainfall over the next couple of days. Flooding is expected”
A cold front pushed southeastwards over the UK on Thursday and this morning it is feeling colder for everyone, with a frost in parts of Scotland. This active boundary brought sudden gusts and downpours but was named Storm Louis for France where there was heavy rain, flooding and strong winds. The Netherlands also issued amber warnings for impactful winds and this low centre has moved off to the Alps where there are a rash of warnings for snow, ice, hail and strong winds into Italy and around the Adriatic. Another low centre developed overnight across the North Sea and this is Storm Rolf for Denmark and southern Norway.
Today and Saturday see the UK sitting in a colder polar flow, ploughing down from Greenland last night but easing and being interrupted by Saturday when the flow will slacken. For some, it is sunny with glorious blue skies this morning, particularly for eastern Britain. For others, blustery showers are passing by with gusty winds and a mix of rain, hail, sleet and hill snow. These seem to be packing in from the west and heading along the English Channel. They will make progress further inland but NE Britain looks quite sheltered.
We won’t see heavy and persistent rain over the next two days but the risk of localised flooding remains due to high river and groundwater levels along with all the lingering surface water. Some places have had three times the usual February rainfall already this month, and we get an extra day. Temperatures today will be around 5 to 7C and feeling colder in the breeze or a passing shower.
As the flow slackens overnight it will be chilly with a frost in places, perhaps even a little fog or ice to watch out for.
SaturdayA line of rain and snow showers will reach the far northwest of Scotland to begin Saturday. Cornwall will have a nippy northwest wind and sharp showers first thing but the rest of the UK will be calm. Heavy showers could also clip Kent and Sussex during the day. There will be a lot of fair, dry weather about but a scattering of light showers will develop and move eastwards.
Inland Scotland will have a cold night with a moderate frost with many areas dipping just below zero with hardly any breeze. Approaching from the west, will be the next Altatlnci low pressure. This drifts towards the Bay of Biscay, so not the traditional path but does mean more rain for soggy France. There is uncertainty for southern Britain around the northern extent of any rain from this low.
The UKV shows patchy frontal rain over SW England, south Wales and across to Surrey with heavier pulses for Devon and Cornwall in a keen east wind. Although showers continue to pester the Scottish Islands much of the UK remains fine and bright for Sunday as the low centre rolls along the north coast of France. This will bring an easterly flow off the North Sea for more of Britain and low cloud.
Away from the frontal rain in the south, and remembering the uncertainty about its reach on Sunday, there will be fine weather for NW England, a good deal of Scotland and Northern Ireland. County Down could catch more cloud as the easterly picks up. It could be quite miserable by Sunday afternoon for more of Wales and England with a fresh E/NE wind, strong for coasts and hills.
