The end of this week will feel colder, especially compared to the recent very mild conditions. Saturday should be fair with showers for a few, Sunday more uncertain.
By the end of this week, there will be colder air across the UK. Saturday looks more settled with sunny spells but still some showers. There is uncertainty for Sunday due to an incoming Atlantic low which could bring more rain from the southwest.
The current mild air will be replaced by a northwesterly flow from Greenland, followed by a more northerly but slack flow lasting into the weekend. Later on Friday, the rash of heavy showers, feeding in on westerly surface winds, will ease. In the next few days, these will include sleet and hill snow in the north and west. As the winds fall light for the start of the weekend, there will be frost overnight with temperatures dipping below zero and also the risk of ice. Daytime temperatures will be around 6 to 9C. This is closer to what is expected at this time of year, but it will still seem colder compared to the mildness of last weekend.
Today sees wind and rain across the UK as weather fronts pile up, with one low nearing Iceland and another grazing the Western Isles. This lengthy boundary between the very mild air in the south, over continental Europe and the colder air to the north will throw up two more low centres tonight. This means more rain, and there is a Met Office rain warning this morning over Wales and SW England.
“Heavy rain may result in some flooding and disruption.” MO. The river and surface water flooding is expected to continue in the same areas Wednesday into Thursday. The Environment Agency also mentions a flooding risk for the Upper Thames area until Friday, for the River Severn into the weekend.
The active boundary region moves away on Friday, shoved towards Scandinavia and the Alps where it will bring half-term snow, perhaps a bit late for some. The rash of showers for the UK will affect western areas with hail and some heavy downpours but bright, even sunny skies further east. There will be a drying trend into Saturday with calm cold conditions, more sunshine, and the frost but the occasional cluster or line of showers to watch out for on the radar. Northern Scotland could see a bit of rain, sleet and snow as a band sweeps in from the northwest. Rain showers could affect SW England and English Channel coasts during the day, coming and going.
There is some uncertainty about which areas will see more showers, perhaps more of southern Britain, and the usual low confidence about where and when the downpours will appear for a particular location. Don’t rely on timings on weather apps at this stage. A good part of Britain should have a fine, but cool, day. There could be some early low cloud or fog making a slow start for the weekend.
A change begins during Saturday night as southerly winds will pick up for Ireland, the Irish Sea coasts, Devon and Cornwall. High pressure will build up towards Iceland as a new low pressure slides towards Ireland from the Atlantic. The low centre gets nudged eastwards and slightly southwards, For the end of the weekend, it could bring more heavy rain to southern Britain or just brush southwest England, again. France could see the bulk of the rainfall from this low or it may affect more of southern Britain into Monday. The 03Z Weds run of the UKV has the frontal rain reaching Wales with mountain snow on Sunday morning and then northern England by the afternoon with sleet and hill snow for the Peak District, Dales and Cumbrian Fells. It shows rain by day for Northern Ireland and the risk of snow over the Pennines by Sunday evening. However, all of this is dependent on where the low centre tracks. The colder air remains in the north, if an easterly flow does develop off the North Sea ahead of the low, that could draw in low cloud which will add to the day's chill. Northern areas look to stay drier, in the cold air but further south the risk of flooding increases as the wind and rain return.
